Short-Term Energy Outlook

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The Short-Term Energy Outlook from the U.S. Energy Information Administration

Highlights

* Although spot crude oil prices continue to fluctuate on a daily basis, EIA’s projections for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil spot prices have remained relatively stable over the last 4 Outlooks. EIA expects WTI prices to average above $80 per barrel this spring, rising to an average of about $82 per barrel by the end of the year and to $85 per barrel by the end of 2011.

* Projected economic growth this year is higher in this forecast, with U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) growing by 2.8 percent and world oil-consumption-weighted real GDP growing by 3.4 percent, compared with 2.3 percent and 2.7 percent growth, respectively, in last month’s Outlook. The 2011 forecast for real GDP growth is relatively unchanged at 2.6 percent and 3.5 percent for the United States and the world, respectively.

* EIA forecasts that the annual average regular grade retail gasoline price will increase from $2.35 per gallon in 2009 to $2.84 in 2010 and to $2.96 in 2011 because of the projected rising crude oil prices. Average U.S. pump prices likely will exceed $3 per gallon at times during the forthcoming spring and summer driving season. Projected annual average retail diesel fuel prices are $2.96 and $3.14 per gallon, respectively, in 2010 and 2011.

* EIA expects this year’s annual average natural gas Henry Hub spot price to be $5.17 per million Btu (MMBtu), a $1.22-per-MMBtu increase over the 2009 average. EIA projects price increases to continue in 2011, averaging $5.65 per MMBtu for the year. Projected working gas inventories end the first quarter of 2010 at about 1,550 billion cubic feet (Bcf) compared with 1,644 Bcf in the previous Outlook because of colder-than-normal weather in February. Natural-gas-weighted heating degree-days were nearly 11 percent above the 30-year norm last month.

* The annual average residential electricity price changes only slightly over the forecast period, averaging 11.5 cents per kilowatthour (kWh) in both 2009 and 2010, and then rising to 11.6 cents per kWh in 2011.

* Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuels, which declined by 6.4 percent in 2009, increase by 1.5 percent and 1.2 percent in 2010 and 2011, respectively, in the forecast as economic growth fuels higher energy consumption.