Horrifying Odds/Shocking Statistics

I was reading an article online with the local classic rock station on and the radio jock starting talking about odds of things happening.  I wasn't paying much attention, but he mentioned the odds of winning the lottery, then went on with other long odds of things happening to you.  It wasn't until the last bit of information he mentioned that my ears perked up.

I did not remember all the numbers, but I went to see the odds of playing the lottery. From Wonderopolis:

In a lottery in which you pick 6 numbers from a possible pool of 49 numbers, your chances of winning the jackpot (correctly choosing all 6 numbers drawn) are 1 in 13,983,816. That's 1 shot in almost 14 million.

If you were to buy one lottery ticket each week in such a scenario, you could expect to win once every 269,000 years.

That's pretty good odds compared to the Mega Millions jackpot. According to Wikipedia the odds of hitting a jackpot on that game are 302,575,350 to 1.

Of course, if you want a little better odds than that, then you can play Powerball, which according to Wiki has odds of "only" 1 in 292,201,338 of winning the big prize.

I don't remember all the categories - just the last couple - the radio jock brought up, but northjersey.com claims that you have a much better chance of being killed by a vending machine 112 million to one - than winning either the Powerball or Mega Millions.  They also say it's a much better bet that an asteroid will hit the Earth, 1-75,000.  Also, the article says the odds of finding a four-leaf clover are 1-10,000 and being hit by lightning 1 in 15,300.

I wonder what the odds are of being hit by lightning AND an asteroid while looking for a four-leaf clover?

Never mind.

Anyway, the radio jock went on with some odds I found distressing and unlike the other millions to one odds, I remembered these.  He said the odds of a man cheating on his wife were 1 in 5.  That upset me for some reason, even though I knew that was pretty accurate.  I'm just proud that when I was married, I was one of the four faithful guys.

The other stat that bothered me was in the same category, namely that 1 in 7.5 women cheated on their husbands.  I'm certain that my ex was one of those 6.5 faithful women.

Which brings me to something about that last stat;  just exactly how does one cheat with .5 of a person, half a woman? Would that be the top half?  Just guessing, but I'd say it would have to be the bottom half to really fall under the definition of cheating, but that's just my twisted mind.  Whats even more twisted is the thought of the woman being half a woman vertically...split right down the middle 

I guess that could be the case, more than the top/bottom scenarios.  After all, the odds of a woman having conjoined twins is 1-200,000....and if they had been separated, and a man cheated with one of the twins, that technically would be the point 5 of a woman, right?

I guess if a guy cheated with BOTH of the still-joined twins, that would skew the statistics, right?  Would you count that as one or TWO of that 7.5 figure?

What's really horrifying is me thinking about stuff like this.  Trust me, the odds of me doing THAT is pretty much a sure thing.

A Very Bing Birthday

Among family, friends and my online pals. I've had a pretty good birthday so far. Several of my email newsletters have sent me special emails, also wishing me a happy birthday. (and I also got an email in my spam folder from a "young woman" who wished me a happy birthday and would give me a "special present" if I clicked on the enclosed link. I was tempted, but...)

Bing also sent me birthday wishes earlier today on their home page; the images were animated, but I just took screen shots.

Make a wish?  Sure, so I clicked the button and got this:

I don't know how magical Bing is, but if my birthday wish comes true, I will be a lottery winner sometime this week.  I hope it's the Powerball because it's MUCH larger than the Mega Millions or the Texas Lotto jackpots.

My Bing Birthday

My sister sent me a card and an Amazon gift card and some of my Facebook friends wished me a Happy Birthday...but only after my sis posted a birthday message. (I don't have my birthday listed) I've also received birthday wishes from various newsletters and a few coupons in the mail from companies such as American Spirit and Black & Mild.  I'm pretty sure tobacco companies aren't concerned about me having MORE birthdays, y'know?

I opened up Bing early this a.m. to finish up this month's searches to get points for my regular $5 Amazon Gift Card, a great prize for reading and searching online, something I'd do for free anyway, and I saw this, pretty cool:

I clicked the "Make a Wish" link and got this:

I hope my wish comes true because I wished I'd win the lottery. I DID win $8 on last night's Powerball drawing, but I'm hopin' for a little more.

A few tens of millions more, actually.

parvenu

parvenu noun [pahr-vuh-noo, pahr-vuh-noo,-nyoo]

a person who has recently or suddenly acquired wealth, importance, position, or the like, but has not yet developed the conventionally appropriate manners, dress, surroundings, etc.

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I wanna be a parvenu; that's why I play the lottery.

Mega-Sick

I stayed up last night to see the winning numbers in the Mega Millions lottery;  I didn't even get a single number, but at least the jackpot rolled over and will be $142 million next Tuesday night. (which will be Christmas Eve, so maybe I'll get a fantastic present for the holiday!)

What I did notice was someone hit 5 numbers but didn't get the bonus ball.  That paid a cool million, but I also noticed they didn't opt for the Megaplier which, with the multiplier of X3 would have paid 3 million bucks.

(click for larger view)

Can you imagine how conflicted they must feel after seeing their numbers come up?  On one hand, they won a million dollars, but on the other, since they didn't shell out another buck for the Megaplier, they left two million on the table.

I dunno 'bout them, but I would probably most likely puke when I realized how much money I had lost by not spending two dollars instead of one.   That's why I always play the Megaplier on the Mega Millions, the Powerplay on Powerball and Extra on the Texas Lotto.  I don't always play the lotteries, but just last week I won $12 instead of $4 because I had spent the extra buck and in the past I've won other larger amounts because of it.  No, I haven't even broke even on playing, but I'm not going to regret ever not playing the option of multiplying a lower-tier prize.

cygnet

cygnet\ SIG-nit \ noun

1. a young swan

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I knew this word, even before I started dreaming about winning the lottery. I recently found a nice live water "ranch" that I'd like to buy if I ever did hit the lottery, Swann Ranch near Winnsboro in N. Texas. (It's "only" $2.9 million) If I'm ever lucky enough to be able to buy a place with a small lake or pond, I'd want to buy some ducks and a few geese and since the entrance gates have black swans fabricated out of metal on them, I'd want to get swans to match. Hey, I'd be rich, so....

I'd have to be rich, not only to buy the multi-million dollar ranch and homes, but to buy a breeding pair of Australian Black Swans - $2,250 for the pair.

Purley Gates Ranch

My friends, family and regular readers of this blog know I love to look at real estate ads and I've posted a couple of times about properties I'd love to own.   I first noticed this one on the Hortenstine website a couple of years ago.  One of the realtors was nice enough to answer some questions that had "bothered" me about the listing.

The price of the property was recently reduced to $6,500,000. (from over 7 million) To be honest, I was surprised it didn't sell at the higher price and I expect it won't last much longer at that price.  Of course, there's no way I could afford it...unless I won a BIG lottery.  Even if I did win a hundred million bucks, I don't think I'd buy it now;  I'm getting too old to try to keep up such a huge property.  If I had had the money ten years ago, sure, but now?  I'd have to move my entire family and THEIR families in with me to maintain the place.  Who knows?  They might be all for that.   With three large homes and several manufactured homes for employees, there'd be plenty of room for all of us.  I'd even build a home for my big sister.

Being several miles from the nearest town of any size, I'm not sure it would have good broadband internet, though.  That might be a deal breaker!

With it being on the market for a substantial time, I'm wondering why it hasn't sold.  From looking at maps and Google Earth, it appears that one leg of the Keystone pipeline went very close to the property, but that shouldn't be a deal breaker.  I don't think there's much oil/gas production close by and part of the royalties convey.  There are coal deposits not too far away, but I doubt they'll be developed and I think the sub-surface water (springs) are in no immediate danger of drying up.  I dunno;  I'm such a pessimist and there's GOT to be some reason it hasn't been snatched up already. 

I've got my Megamillions ticket for tomorrow night; the cash option jackpot is right at 47 million after taxes, so I would have close to 40 million left after buying this place.  Maybe if my family wouldn't want to quit their jobs and move there w/ me, I could talk some of my Internet pals into it!

The Lottery is Racist!

I read posts every day, some which make me furious, others make me literally laugh out loud and some that do both and have me SMH.   This is one of that sort, one in a lottery forum I belong to but don't participate in very much.

why do black americans rarely win big jackpots

I wanted to chime in, but didn't.  Others have pointed out the idiocy of the OP more than enough.  Someone went to the trouble of finding official photographs of black lottery winners and others broke down the demographics.

I don't like to get serious in here all that much and won't this time either (or at least blather on interminably about it) , but just say that I'm getting tired of the racist label being thrown out there all the time.  I'm tired of being called a racist because I don't care for this President, tired of being called one because  - in most cases - I support the death penalty and sick to death of being called a racist because I believe something should be done about illegals flooding into this country...and am especially against granting amnesty to those who broke the law coming here and continue to break it by staying and/or using false identification to get benefits they do not deserve.

Using the word "racist" at every turn devalues the true meaning of that word, diminishes the insult when it is directed at people who truly deserve the term.  I don't think they've coined a word or phrase about it as they did "Godwin's Law" regarding using the word "Nazi" in a discussion, but they should.  

motza

motza mot·ser

noun Australian Slang

a large amount of money, especially a sum won in gambling.

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Since I've been online, I've learned a lot of slang from my friends in other countries, but I've never seen/heard this one used.

Whatever the opposite word and meaning is, that'd be the word I'd have to use. I am not a bad poker player, but not a good one, either, mostly breaking even. I never had much luck at all betting on football games. (I once lost an entire paycheck betting on the Cowboys) I used to like to play scratch tickets, but winning tickets are few and far between - my average is less than the stated odds on the back of the tickets.  I seldom even win a flip of a coin.

The Mega Millions lottery is tonight ($190 million) and the Powerball ($550 million) tomorrow. Here's hoping I have motza after either one. If I do, I might just take a trip to Australia so I can use it and have people understand what I mean.

Jackpots, Stocks & Socks

There's a lottery frenzy going on right now;  the Mega Millions jackpot is $170 million and the Powerball is up to $350 million.  I bought a QP (quick pick) ticket for each earlier this evening.  I don't expect to win either, but it sure would be nice.

I sometimes visit a lottery forum and *sometimes* enjoy reading the comments.  I was surprised at the level of contention over how people should invest their money or even spend it.  I did enjoy one obviously young man's recent post with pics of all the things he would buy;  a few sports cars and a house that looked larger than many hotels I've seen.  It had a game room with a dozen arcade games, pinball machines, 2-lane bowling alley, a huge gym, a man cave with a gigantic video screen and bar.  There were so many photos of things he would buy it took a minute or so to load even w/ my fairly fast connection.   Some castigated him over his conspicuous consumption dreams but others laughed and said more power to him. (my thoughts)

Other people said they'd live in swanky places such as Beverly Hills or Malibu while others said they wouldn't want to live in those type places.  I agree with the latter.  Some said they would want to have multiple houses and live in Hawaii or Florida during the winter and in the north in summer. (Me? I'd be worrying about the one house while living in the other)  One woman wants to live in Paris, something I would never, ever do.  I don't really have any desire to visit France except for the Normandy D-Day beaches.

The investment advice varies greatly, too.  "Buy gold and silver!" declare some.  "Diamonds!" say others.   Some say they'd play the stock market. (and I expect the stock market *might* play THEM) A few take the survivalist route,  say they'd buy a place in the mountains with plenty of guns, freeze dried foods, etc.  I guess that's OK, but it certainly wouldn't be enjoying your new-found wealth, at least not to me.  (as I've mentioned before) 

One guy distrusted the stock market and other investments so much he said he'd just as soon stuff it all into a mattress.  That's a little TOO cautious for me, but I have always thought I might make a pillow full of cash.  I don't know if that would make me sleep easy or not sleep at all worrying about it, but....

Some of the best arguments are over taking the lump sum or the annuity.  When purchasing my lottery tickets, I always opt for the lump sum for several reasons.  One, the highest tax bracket just increased this year from 35% to 39.6%.  Taxes very seldom go down.  Secondly, the annuity would give you a guaranteed income for its length (26 yrs on Mega Millions, 30 on Powerball) but I'm getting to the age where I most likely wouldn't see the last checks and even if I did, I might not have the mental facilities to endorse them. 

Maybe a good investment would be a nice retirement home and pay the employees very well and also stipulate that, on the day after I died, they were all fired.  I imagine I'd get some great care.

As I said, I doubt I'll ever win the lottery,but if I do,  I plan to give all my winnings away. 

Yes, all of it;  to charity, friends and family, but also to current land owners, building contractors, auto dealerships, airlines, resorts, cruise ships, restaurants, clothing stores, etc.  Of course, I'll have to give the govt. 39.6% plus what they'll take after I die, plus taxes on my earnings from investments.(that mattress idea looks better all the time)

I don't think I could ever be obscenely extravagant, but who knows?  I once read Justin Timberlake wears brand new underwear every day.  I never found out what he did with the old ones, but he could probably make a pretty good amt. by selling them on Ebay.   I might do something like that, only with socks, although I doubt anyone would want my "old" socks, even with only one wearing.  I guess I could donate them to charity. (after washing, of course)  OTOH, I could probably hire someone to come in and sort and match them, that would be the main reason I'd wear a new pair every day.  I really hate having to try to match up nearly identical white socks.

Busy Busy Busy

This is what I get when clicking on the official Texas Lottery site:

No wonder, what with the Powerball frenzy that's gripped the nation over the last few days.  The jackpot was originally 450 million but at the time of the drawing had increased to 580 million and it was announced that outlets were selling 100,000 tickets a minute.

Still, the official Powerball website hasn't been overwhelmed.  I usually go to USA Mega when I want results; it seems to always be up and running when the others aren't just after the drawings of huge jackpots.  They also announce both the numbers and results much earlier than does any other lottery site I have bookmarked.

I'm a little sick;  I had purchased a couple of numbers w/ the Powerball/multiplier option, making my total investment in the half-billion+ dollar dream come to six bucks.  As I sat here earlier, I thought I might run down and get another ticket but decided against it.  I get quick picks these days when I play; I used to play a set of numbers but quit when my age became more than the largest possible number available to pick. -sigh- I thought I might play my old numbers and let the machine pick the Powerball.  As I checked my numbers earlier, I saw that four of my numbers would have been chosen for winnings of $200 and much more if I had happened to have chosen the multiplier. 

Oh well.  Shoulda, woulda, coulda, that's my motto.

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UPDATE:

Certainly not official, but the webmaster at the USA Mega site says there are at least two winners in two different states. If that's true, then the predicted one billion dollar drawing that WOULD have been Saturday night won't happen. At the present time, the MegaMillions, the Powerball and the Texas Lottery are all "small" jackpots.

Mega Wages

The Mega Millions lotto had no winner this last drawing, so it's rolled over again, making the jackpot of $365 million one of the largest ever.

The amount is staggering, isn't it? Over a third of a billion dollars.  It would be nice (an understatement) to win it, but even nicer (read:greedy) to be the sole winner.

The $365 million is for an annuity which would be paid out over 26 years.  When you purchase a ticket, you have the option of the annuity or taking a lump sum, which for this drawing would be $255.1 million. After federal taxes, that figure would be $165.815 million. (No state tax in Texas!) I've always thought I would opt for this method of payout, considering what my age would be after 26 years.  I have to face the fact that I most likely wouldn't live to see the last yearly payments. (or wouldn't remember my name or that I had ever won the lottery) That's not the only depressing fact to take into consideration - the interest on certificates of deposits is pathetically low.  They vary all the time and from bank-to-bank, but some yearly CDs pay less than 1% a year and 5-yr CDs anywhere from 1.7- 2%. 

Let's say you blew through 10 million right off the bat and allotted another million a year to spend until your jumbo 5-yr CDs matured. (of course, you could make a dab of interest on unspent money, but let's disregard that for the sake of simplicity.) $150 million @ 2% would, with simple interest (not figuring compound rates) get you $3 million per year. (15 million+ over the five yr. period)  Of course, Uncle Sam would want his 35%*, so the yearly net would be $1.95 million. I think most people could live on that.(You could also make some interest on the earned interest if you reinvested it.)  You could then leave the huge sum of money - the 150 million-  to your family.  (Although in some cases, you *might* want to lie to them and tell them you're leaving most of it to charity.  Otherwise they might want the will to be read a little early, if you get my drift. It's happened.)

On the other hand, if you did opt for the annuity, the income is much better.  Before taxes, the yearly payout would be $13.692+ million a year with a net of $8.9 million.  That would give you a monthly take-home income of a little more than $741, 666, a weekly income of $171, 153 and change - which works out to $24,383.56 a day.

Or, you could look at it this way: $1015.98 an hour.  You could afford to pay someone minimum wage (Federal min. wage is $7.25) - along with some basic benefits - just to screen your calls from all the distant kinfolk and scam artists who would want some of your new-found riches.

That leaves you with a thousand bucks an hour for 26 years.  That's $1000 per hour, every hour of every day of every week of every month for 26 years.  Rain or shine, asleep or awake, it's going into your bank account.

Not bad wages, huh?

*I've read that 35% federal tax rate might soon go up to 39% if the current administration has its way.  It's not just the President and the Democrats in Congress - a growing percentage of the population is of the mind that the rich don't pay enough taxes.  Winning the lottery wouldn't just change your life, it might also change your political affiliation. -wink-

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Edit: I don't mean to insult anyone w/ the political reference. I expect you...or I...would keep our same core political beliefs as we had before winning the lottery, BUT I'd think...would hope...we would be more "liberal" in regards to charity and more "conservative" fiscally.

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UPDATE:  The announced jackpot is 363 million.  I guess the 365 number was the estimate.  Usually, though, when a jackpot is this large, the number goes up because the prize is tied into a percentage of tickets sold. So, my calculations are incorrect.  They were, anyway.  I don't know what caused me to make the mistakes, but I did.  (I used my computer calculator, but I guess you need to be semi-smart to use it.  That lets me out.) So sue me.  Wait until I win the lottery, though, because you damn sure wouldn't get anything now.

I read an article this morning which mentioned "lottery fever" - when people get excited by the huge jackpot and buy more tickets, often more than they can afford.  It also touted some "expert" who said a lottery player should always pick their own numbers, not allow the machine to choose them.  That doesn't make any sense, because one number is just as good as any other. (the winning number notwithstanding! -grin-) I always get a "quick pick" because my old set of numbers never did much good.  I also had a fear that if I ever did quit playing them or change to another, they would come up.  That could happen anyway, I suppose.

I also bought but one ticket.  Buying two tickets doesn't do much to increase your odds of winning, not by my thinking.  If the odds are one in ten million, then an extra ticket would make it two in ten million.  I suppose you've doubled your chances, but....

The Long, Lucky Weekend

My weekend didn't start out so lucky; I deleted several off of my Facebook friends list because they had never liked anything I had posted or commented on one of my comments to their posts. I "like" a lot of my FB friend's posts if only to show them I read it and I don't know why others can't do that too. (my best online friends do it - you know who you are and I appreciate it and love you)

I then had a comment from someone I thought I had a fairly good rapport; she was a fairly recent FB friend and had left a cryptic comment saying she would comment, but that I wouldn't understand. It annoyed me because she really didn't know me. I don't mind people disagreeing with me so much, but to go to the trouble of posting and not let her opinion to be known AND letting me know she had an opinion, but that I wouldn't understand? That's OK, she's off my friends list now. Petty, I know, but I'd rather spend the time reading through "real" friends posts than someone who posts the equivalent of "I know something you don't know!" isn't worth the bother.

I was at the grocery store Saturday and as I was leaving, I stopped at the lottery machine to get a Powerball ticket. The jackpot was fairly high, the only time I play that particular game. I dug in my billfold for a couple of dollars, intending to get the multiplier option which can increase any "lesser" prize one might win, but also doubles the cost of the ticket. I was distracted for a second, looked up then without looking plugged what I thought was the first of the two dollar bills I would need to purchase the lotto ticket.

Oh no! I had put in a ten dollar bill instead! Frantically, I tried to pull it back out as the machine was sucking it into the tray, but couldn't. At first, I thought I would get a store employee to open up the machine and get my ten bucks back, but there weren't any around. Sure as shootin', if I left the machine someone else would come along and use up my $10 credit.

So, I thought I'd just use the money for my lottery ticket and get the rest in scratch-offs. I got a five dollar ticket, something I never, ever purchase, a couple of $2 tickets and a single, using up the entire ten bucks. (forgetting my lotto ticket I was intending to purchase)

I got out to my pickup and started scratching. Nothing at all on the five dollar ticket, but got five dollars on one two dollar ticket and two dollars on the other. I started scratching the one dollar ticket and found I had won on every single play on it, $20 worth! With the others, that made a total of $27 for a "profit" of 17 bucks.

I then realized I hadn't purchased my Powerball ticket, so I went to a nearby convenience store and used the two dollar ticket for a quick pick. To make a long story a little shorter, I only had the powerball in the drawing, but with the multiplier (x5)it meant I won $15! So, my ten dollar mistake turned into a nearly doubling of my money!

Then, earlier Sunday, I had an email from an address I didn't recognize. It was informing me that I had won a copy of The Perfect Scoop by David Lebovitz, considered by many to be the bible of ice cream making. I had forgotten I had entered the contest on one of the many recipe sites I subscribe to in my reader. I generally don't enter those but sure am glad I entered that one!

Thanks to the long holiday weekend, I've still got one more day and hope I am as lucky as I was the last two!

Have a good holiday everyone!